Discussion on the use of regional economic forecasting capital

Samarinda, 18 June 2021, 09.00 WITA . Bappeda of East Kalimantan Province attended online discussion activities for the use of regional economic forecasting capital. The event was held by Bappenas RI and was attended by Bappeda Province in Indonesia and USAID. The speakers who were presented at this event Amalia Adiningga Widyasanti as Deputy for Economic Affairs of the Indonesian Ministry of PPN/Bappenas, Peter Novak as representatives of USAID Indonesia, and Prof. Arief Anshoru Yusuf as Representative of Padjajaran University Lecturer.

In its presentation Deputy for Economic Affairs Bappenas RI said that the development of the saper model is needed for the projected rate of economic growth at the provincial level. The saper model uses a specific model for each province, so that the determinants of growth rates are adjusted to the characteristics of each province. The saper model uses high frequency variables so it needs to be updated regularly. Variables Determining Growth in the Saper Model need to be continuously renewed following the latest developments, so routine discussions are needed with regional apparatus related to the factors that affect the rate of economic growth in the region.

Meanwhile, Peter Novak from USAID Indonesia said that it is similar to the situation in other countries in the world and in the region, the Indonesian government is currently facing double challenges in response to economic disruption due to crisis Global Covid-19 and maintain a commitment to fund the achievement of ambitious economic reform agenda. In Indonesia, the government's rapid strategic response will help keep this country on its path to become one of the largest economic countries in the world in the coming decades.

The development partnership between the Indonesian and the United States has been going on for a long time. USAID's commitment to strengthen and support Indonesia's development has been going on for years. The establishment and implementation of USAID Economic Growth Support Activity (EGSA) highlights this commitment to support the Indonesian government in economic planning, budgeting, income mobilization, and strong private sector development.

One of the many ongoing partnerships, which is our focus today, is the formation of a regional macroeconomic forecasting model called the regional economic forecasting system or saper. This model is expected to strengthen the capacity of Bappenas and Bappeda in economic planning by allowing financial planners to estimate the appropriate economic response to various changes in government policy.

In the future, the saper model will be a strong and effective tool for local and national governments to adjust their policies and regulations to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of government expenditure, allowing more economic environments good to do business, and accelerate economic recovery.

Prof. Arief Anshory Yusuf from Padjajaran University said that the regional economic forecasting system (SAPER) is a provincial economic growth forecasting model in Indonesia that uses quarterly economic data to predict the provincial economic growth rate (LPE) and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) up to four quarters forward. The use of saper is expected to improve the harmony of national economic growth planning with planning at the provincial level.

SAPER supporting data needs to be continuously renewed to get better prediction results, including: Growth Gross Domestic Product Growth (GRDP), Growth Growth Growth (GDP), Percentage of Change commodity prices, variables related to Pandemi Covid-19 and other variables.

Economic Growth Support Activity (USAID EGSA) supports the Indonesian government in an effort to promote sustainable economic growth. USAID EGSA is a technical assistance facility funded by USAID and aims to support efforts to increase technical capacity in tax collection, budgeting, public expenditure, financial accountability; and creating an environment that supports the ease of business.

From the implementation of this activity it was concluded that in order to improve the quality of the preparation of the Micro Economic Framework in the Government Work Plan, Bappenas collaborated with the US Agency for International Development (USAID) through the Economic Growth Support Activity project (EGSA), is developing a model of a regional economic analysis and forecasting system abbreviated as a saper. The model is shown as a projection of regional economic growth in quarterly by combining the latest economic conditions.

SAPER supporting data needs to be continuously renewed to get better prediction results, including: Growth Gross Domestic Product Growth (GRDP), Growth Growth Growth (GDP), Percentage of Change Commodity prices, variables related to Pandemi Covid-19 and other variables. Economic Growth Support Activity (USAID EGSA) supports the Indonesian government in an effort to promote sustainable economic growth. USAID EGSA is a technical assistance facility funded by USAID and aims to support efforts to increase technical capacity in tax collection, budgeting, public expenditure, financial accountability; and creating an environment that supports the ease of business.

(Humasbappeda/Ismi) .